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Could Shopper Demand Signals Have Predicted Trump’s Election Win?

New data from 360pi suggests the results of the presidential election could have been foreseen.

As American retailers are still speculating the potential economic and trade implications of Donald Trump’s impending presidency, we couldn’t help but wonder if those same retailers might have been able to project this year’s winner with some early indicator shopper demand signals. So, we looked into it.  

Putting Trump’s controversial statements aside, one of the more publicized parts of this election was Clinton’s attire. Sporting her colorful pantsuits – and emboldening others, like Beyonce, to rock inspired designs – Hillary inadvertently became a sort of fashion icon. Looking to consumer trends over the past 60 days, we took a look at whether or not the rest of America was following suit (no pun intended) and adding pantsuits to their wardrobes. As it turns out, we saw no notable increase in demand in the days leading up to the election. In fact, our calculations show an overall decline in demand for pantsuits since early spring.

Conversely, we also combed through the data for shopper trends surrounding Donald Trump and we made a serendipitous discovery. Where we observed no trace of Hillary, we found two Trump-related products ranking in Amazon’s self-reported Top 100 Best-Selling Clothing list. In late September, Trump’s “Make America Great Again” t-shirt ranked #75 in the retailer’s listing. Then in mid-October, we found that a Trump Halloween mask breached the Top 100 in the same listing, ranking #25 for 8 straight days.

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Could this have possibly been an early indication to retailers of how Americans would vote this past election? Perhaps. Although it can’t be proved, it’s rather curious data. What will be particularly interesting to look for in the next few months is what Trump’s presidency will mean for other retail trends this holiday. Will they tell a larger story?

For more retail insights, 360pi will be tracking holiday trends in their annual Holiday Insights Series and offering subscribers exclusive Black Friday and Cyber Monday reports. Sign up for the Series here.

About the Author
360pi delivers next generation commerce analytics to retail and brand innovators helping them make sense of retail and shopper big data to realize a winning product-price position across channels and create a consistent shopper experience. 360pi’s customer base accounts for over $US300 billion in annual product sales and includes Ace Hardware, Build.com, Overstock.com, and Walgreens, along with several Fortune 500 consumer products companies. Ultimately, 360pi customers use the company’s product and pricing intelligence to make smarter decisions faster, driving increased revenues and margins across all channels.